1MALAYSIA A BIG JOKE

Thursday, January 14, 2010

1MALAYSIA A BIG JOKE

Malaysia, Truly Asia........ This was piece of marketing ingenuity that helps propel Malaysia onto the world tourist map. This slogan left lasting impression of a country rich in cultural diversity as well as its natural beauty. Many nations have emulated Malaysia on such tourism advertisement.

When Mahathir was PM, his national slogan was Vision 2020. Badawi slept through with no special vision. The success of Truly Asia and Vision 2020 was attributed to Mahathir. Not to be left out, PM Najib rolls out ‘1Malaysia’ campaign in a hope of creating a new beginning. It sounds good to the ears but no one knows exactly what it encompasses or embraces. But since its inception, it has only met with suspicion and cynicism. But some contend that Najib should be given a chance to prove his seriousness and sincerity about building a new Malaysia.

But alas, no one is excited about it. Does it mean equal rights for all races? No way it will happen in Malay dominated UMNO government. Ever since the last GE, the number of domestic incidents related to race and religion has spiral out of control. The dismal failure of the government to handle all these issues fairly without prejudice has further eroded the relevance of ‘1Malaysia’ campaign. It is the government uneven handedness that displeases the non-Malays. In fact race relation has worsened and religious conflicts are escalating. Today Malaysians are more polarized on ethnic and religious line. How does ‘1Malaysia’ can fit into the present political landscape? Any Malaysia can tell you this is a big joke. It is just an electioneering gimmick to hoodwink, cajole and pacify the ordinary folks.

I can recalled many incidents that are not consistent with the philosophy of Najib 1Malaysia. Ahmad Ismail of Penang UMNO unceremoniously calls non-Malay ‘pedatang’ or immigrant and he was never investigated for sedition. Yet DAP MP and a news journalist were arrested under ISA for supposedly criticizing mosque being too loud in the Morning Prayer call. And it was the Malay aligned newspapers that spin the stories. The severed and bloody ‘cow head’ demonstration against building a Hindu temple near Muslim areas was never condemned by UMNO leadership. Beers were confiscated from 7Eleven shops by religious enforcement officers for being unislamic. For the first time a Muslim woman was sentenced to canning for drinking beer. This Muslim court's sentencing embarrassed the country which proudly claims itself as moderate and progressive. The latest conflict now is who has the ownership of the word “Allah”. This was followed torching of the churches and as I wrote, even a Sikh temple. Where is 1Malaysia?

Najib should look back at Malayan history. LKY was booted out of Malaysia for trying to introduce “Malaysian Malaysia”. It became popular and Abdul Rahman saw it as a threat to the Malays dominance and had Singapore evicted out of Malaysia. If Najib truly believes in the philosophy of 1Malaysia, he surely has guts walking on the minefield in his own backyard. He sure can get the support of non-Malays. How is he going to dismantle the NEP, education quota system, Bumiputras special rights and removing all the special perks that Malays received for '1Malaysia' vision to be truly meaningful?

Najib’s vision of 1Malaysia will die a natural death. To succeed, Malaysia has to made constitutional changes in the Parliament. He needs to change people mindset and it have to start right out of his own party UMNO. The best course of action for him is to quietly abandon this slogan before it becomes a liability as well as the butt of jokes.




-------------------------------------------------------------------

THE DEMON UMNO CREATED

Monday, January 11, 2010

THE DEMON UMNO CREATED

I once read this from a forum in Malaysia, “If it is an Indian problem, it is no problem. If it is a Chinese problem, it is a racial problem. If it is a Malay problem, it is a national problem’.

Race-based politics has been the corner stone of Malaysian politics since independence. UMNO being the dominant and majority party has honed the skill to exploit every opportunity to ensure it continued survival and leadership within BN and the country. Their top leaders have mastered the intricacies of manipulating communal and religious politics to an art form.

In a diversified country such as Malaysia, UMNO is able to exploit its majority status by capturing the hearts and souls of Malays through the affirmative action, championing of the Malay rights and defending the religion of Islam. The NEP provided Bumiputras with guaranteed quota in education and preferred business opportunities.

When Mahathir sacked his deputy Anwar Ibrahim during the Asia financial crisis, the Malays were inadvertently divided. Jailing Anwar aggravated the situation. Urban Malays better educated and more prosperous middle class can no longer be easily manipulated by UMNO leaders through scare mongering. The rampant corruption and self gratification that only benefit few UMNOputras certainly do not go well with the average Malays.

The Preaching of ‘Ketuanan Melayu” or Malay supremacy to the Malay masses has been an essential sloganeering tool that encompass all thing Malay. At every UMNO General Assembly, the battle cry was to protect the Malays at any cost. Many of the past and present leaders have invoked spilling of blood to defend his race. The unsheathing of the Kris has been a ritual that antagonizes non-Malays for many years.

Whoever uttered any words against Malay, will almost be guaranteed to get a spontaneous and vigorous response. At times UMNO Youth members are mobilized to go on demonstration. It has done against many Chinese associations, Indian temples relocations and even against Singapore LKY for stating that non-Malays are marginalized in Malaysia. Some of the demonstrations can be ugly and uncivilized and yet we don’t see any UMNO leadership coming out to condemn it. Instead it always justify that it is fair for the Malays to upset and need to show their emotions for the feeling of hurt.

And the UMNO controlled newspapers continue to spew venom and attack whoever is deemed to have encroached on Malay ground. It continues to highlight the negatives of anyone that has worked against any Malay establishments. It is not adverse to twisting facts and insinuates to defend its Malays interest. Classic examples were the death of Teoh Beng Hock and the “cow head demonstration”.

Over the years, UMNO politicians have succumbed to the temptation of appeasing Malay-Muslims constituency merely for the votes with hand in gloves. Often a blind eye is turned on UMNO demonstrators but any others can expect a very heavy- handed response. Court cases too advance faster whenever anti government figures are involved. Seditions charged too are selective. Investigations process and decision to prosecute can easily be guessed. Many key UMNO members are never investigated despite having wealth beyond their means.

The demon I am talking about is the playing of the Malay race card. It is useful at times for political expediency, widely used as a means to justify its relevance and improve its credibility and popularity among the Malay masses. This demon has become part of UMNO legacy. It has become an uncontrollable and heinous monster that brings fear to its own master. Just to temper it require utmost sensitivity and care, otherwise it will turn around and haunt whoever tried.

The lack of firmness from the whole government in this “Allah and church arson” episode illustrated my point. It fears offending the Malay and Muslim ground. It has appealed to the courts for a stay of order. It did not stop street demonstrations. In its effort to cool the situation, it only shows conciliatory gesture to the Christian quarters.

At the present moment, I do not see any strong UMNO Malay leader that has the guts to exorcise this demon. Even strong man Mahathir continued to coddle and play the race and religious card to his advantage. While serving as Malaysia PM, he declared that Malaysia is an Islamic State to the shock of his countrymen. He always play the race card especially when criticizing Singapore. On his recent blog. he was sympathetic to the Muslim over the court ruling on the use of the word "Allah".

Under the circumstances the only exorcist has to come from a Malay in the opposition camp. If not, the country has no alternative and Malaysians are destined to live under the shadow of this UMNO demon. Also this ghost will continue to haunt the hand that feed it.





---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MALAYSIA, CRACKING UP

Sunday, January 10, 2010

MALAYSIA, CRACKING UP

60 years ago, Malaysia forefathers created a federal constitution to create a multi racial and religious country. It took into consideration the indigenous populations especially the impoverish Malays by having Malays Special rights enshrined in the Federal Constitution. It was a social contract where non-Malays are granted citizenship and guaranteed freedom of religion and language. It also accepted and recognized the strong economic dominance of the non-Malays to continue practicing their commercial activities. The Malays on the other hand will run the country, concentrates on civil governance and administration and also include the major security agencies including the military and police. However this arrangement was short-lived when racial riots broke out in May 1969.

UMNO led government then implemented social engineering through NEP where the economic pies of the Malay was enlarged and given privileges in major economic activities including finance, communication, petroleum and plantation business. All major civil engineering contracts were also awarded to preferred Bumiputras without tenders. This action did manage to pacify the Malays but at the end only a minority composing those aligned with UMNO truly benefited. This opened the flood gate for cronyism and nepotism. As such the Malays masses in general were left out. On the contrary, the NEP was seen to marginalize even the Malays and of course the minority races. The non-Malays took it in their stride, overcoming the challenges and obstacles, sometimes through corruption to get thing done. Corruptions have grown unabated and have become endemic. Those in power exploited the opportunities and enriched themselves. Yes, from the lowest ranks of policemen to ministers could not avoid the temptations of easy money.

The vicious cycle of money politics bloomed among BN politicians. Those in power know that to ensure a place in elected office, they are obliged to spend money to buy votes, speak the language of the masses to stay relevant and popular. Racial rhetoric, at times ignoring the sensitivities of the other races and religions, as in defending Malay rights and religion becomes a key platform for their survival. Kissing and drawing the Kris, tough talks of spilling blood to defend Malays rights are standard battle cry for top UMNO leaders. This was the known winning formulas for some time.

It has also become a culture among UMNO leaders to capitalize on any opportunities to go on the streets to demonstrate. Any non-Malays who spoke against Malays rights is guaranteed to incite a retaliation. Is it a Malay psyche to display superiority or is it the fear of being overwhelmed by others? Both are plausible. It is common but unfortunate that non-Malay are stereotyping the Malays in very negative light. Naturally, Malays are compelled to defend its image in a more aggressive manner. At the same time, the Malays have been constantly scared by UMNO leadership that they are very weak and only UMNO is strong enough to protect Malays from being marginalized in their own soil. With constant bickering and reminders, many Malays have actually been conditioned and convinced.

With the court granting the Catholic Church the right to use the word “Allah”, the stage is set for UMNO to defend its Malay ground again. But this time round, many ordinary Malays took thing into their own hands by burning churches. Some quarters believed the arson could have been orchestrated. UMNO leaders responded immediately to contain the ground, but the fuse have been ignited and only drastic measure and cool minds of the non-Malays kept this volatile issues from uncontrollable fallout.

But the real issue and the crux of the problem Malaysia faced today is not about the burning of churches or the use of “Allah” by non-Muslims. The Malaysian government can assure the public and international investors that this is an isolated incident perpetrated by some individual and there is nothing to worry about. Unfortunately the government is still in a denial mode, it just not have the courage to acknowledge that deep rooted racial politics is the real culprit.

Race-based politics has been so deeply entrenched in Malaysian politics. Such politics has become so outmoded in a globalized world when instant news can no longer be buried, instead, it can be transmitted to the living room of a remotest ‘kampong’ as it happened.

BN has become a dinosaur too big to dismantle. UMNO has become a monster so greedy and overfed with corruption and finding no motivation to change its patronizing system. MCA and MIC leaders have been given lucrative perks and benefits by their political patron UMNO that their entire leadership takes pains to selfishly guard their positions.

Unless there is a major political earthquake, a major reform caused by severe economic crisis or another May 13, change is unlikely. This church burning episode will just be another sub-chapter. No one ever doubt new episodes are already lined up at regular interval, just like soap operas on television.





-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MALAYSIA, WHERE ARE YOU GOING????

Saturday, January 9, 2010

MALAYSIA, WHERE ARE YOU GOING????

Where is Malaysia heading? Where, I do not know, but for sure it is going down the hill towards a cliff. If the government is not going to muster the courage to tell its citizen to stop this kind of racial brinksmanship and taunting, a repeat of May 13 is not too far.

60 years ago, 13 fragmented states, most were ruled by Malay Sultans came together to form a single independent country called Malaysia which consist of 60% Malay majority. The Malays enjoy special rights enshrined in the Constitution. The ‘special rights’ has been the single most contentious and divisive issue.

This time, the court granting Catholics the right to use the word “Allah” was deem to have trampled and encroached on Malay special rights. As anticipated many politicians saw this as a direct challenge to the Malays and thus must be defended vigorously.

All these years, this issue have been manipulated and exploited by all political parties to boiling point. A few questions need to be asked, did the leaders of the past did anything to temper this emotional issue. Or have the past leaders find this issue politically expedient to uphold for their own political advantage? Have the past leaders failed in nation building? What nation-building did the highly respected statesman Mahathir did for Malaysia in his 22 years at the helm?

The recent spate of contentious, divisive and controversial events constantly gripped the news headlines are getting more bizarre and even scary. The government seem to be at lost, at times completely in a dilemma to act rationally without upsetting the racial balance and expectations.

The latest arsons of burning churches has attracted world attentions. Having so many embarrassing episodes occurring in this ever divided country, this one was one too many. The potential security risk cannot be underestimated. What if more churches are burnt? What if the Christian retaliated? What if mosques are burnt in revenge? What if a fight between Christian and Muslim is exploited by extreme quarters? How would an unstable Malaysia be impacted economically? This event is set to be the tipping point and the Malaysia government have to act fast and firmly. It may not have any choice left but to invoke the draconian ISA. Otherwise a racial and religious implosion cannot be ruled out and the consequences unimaginable.

The last GE saw BN losing its 2/3 majority since independence. With the spate of events unfolding the last few months, BN cannot expect to receive continued unconditional support from the non-Malays quarters. These recent chilling and unnerving events have further alienated more non-Malay who used to support BN. With eroding support of BN within its ranks as well as outside, the political landscape is bound to undergo seismic change in the next election. The recent lost of power by the LDP in Japan may be a case in point. If and when BN do lost its mandate in the next election, Malaysia will be in deep political malaise and agitated political tensions will fester for the subsequent years. This will not bode well for Malaysia socially and economically, especially at a time when it is struggling out of recession, losing direct foreign investment and as well as dipping oil revenues in the years to come.

If I am a Malaysian, doesn’t matter if I am a Chinese or Malay, I would be crying for my country. How did Malaysia end up so fragmented, so divisive and so insensitive. If we compare Malaysia as a big family, where was the 'family upbringing' of sharing and respect? It is a situation when every child fight for his own selfish interest. The elder demand more as if it is his birth right. The younger must fight for everything. No one give in and even prepare to see blood if needed. This is the problem with Malaysia today, no family upbringing or rather no nation building at all! Each race continues to fight for its own interest and nobody want to lose out!

As the fire burned the churches, the government scrambled into the fire fighting mode. This has been the mode of the government for all these 60 years, fire fighting. In its balancing act, the home ministers even defended the Muslim demonstrators that carried the bloody and severed cow head against the building of a Hindu temple. He said he understands the emotions of the demonstrators and even have a dialogue with them. Now in this church arson episode, he even tries to pacify the antagonists by allowing them to demonstrate. This is a situation when the head of the family fears his children and obliges even unreasonable demand; the outcome is certainly chaos and disharmony. UMNO has unwittingly trapped itself in this quagmire in its hunger and desperation to win election. UMNO leaders fear losing its members’ support. The price for this short sightedness and inaction will be very costly and painful in the next election. When the inevitable happens it may be too late for UMNO.

There are no winners in this episode and UMNO apparently will come out a bigger loser. It can only at best, mitigate this loss if the PM prepares to take a more rational and tougher stand.




----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

AMERICAN WAR ON TERRORISM NEED CHANGE

Tuesday, January 5, 2010

AMERICAN WAR ON TERRORISM NEED CHANGE

For American to win this war on terrorism, it must have a comprehensive plan. Most importantly, it needs to rewrite its rules on engagement with terrorists, both at home and abroad. The statutory framework based on current law is outmoded. It needs to remove obstacles that impede its operations to eliminate terrorists and terrorist suspects. Currently, it is restrained and curtailed by its righteous principles and limited by the need to be transparent in all dealings. The greatest weapons fighting terrorism is secrecy and covert operations.

The current justice system of ‘innocent until proven guilty’ cannot be accorded to terrorist suspects or terrorists planning an attack. To apply such rules, it may be fatal and too late. It is impossible to prove an intention to ‘terrorize’ in court. It is time for politicians to justify that it is better to erroneously jail a few innocent person than to put thousands of innocent lives in harm way. American should adopt the Singapore style ISA and jail potential terrorist without trial.

America needs to create an anti-terrorist agency solely for the purpose to conduct secret and covert operations worldwide to eliminate and destroy terrorists. This agency is answerable only to the President. The agency must have the tentacles to reach even the remotest corner of the world. Agents must have the stealth to penetrate the core of the terrorist networks. It must have financial strength to conduct complex operations deep behind enemy position, hire and deploy network of informants and agents to achieve its mission objective. In no times a worldwide group of bounty hunters will emerged on this agency payroll. These mercenary hunters will be paid commensurate with the status of the terrorists compromised or eliminated. News coverage of all operation should not be allowed.

America is already involved in two wars. It cannot afford to go to Yemen, Sudan, Somalia or Ethiopia to open new fronts. It will be bankrupted by these costly wars. An anti-terrorist agency will be far more flexible, less costly and effective than to send in conventional army. Secret operations will reduce collateral damages and killing of innocents. American soldiers need not die in vain too.

The use of UAVs and drones should be increased. Using drones enable targets deep in extreme terrain to be destroyed. Striking the targets constantly can ‘terrorize’ the terrorists, in turn demoralize the ranks and files. This also disrupts their bases and denies them from secured bases for training and planning attacks. In order to achieve this, more local agents are needed to provide intelligence and they should be rewarded handsomely for the info provided.

Across the Muslim world from Pakistan to Yemen, loyalty to tribal rulers has been a norm since time immemorial. Historically, these tribes or clans are more loyal to clans than to their countries. Inter tribes or clan rivalries are common. This is where covert operations can exploit rivalries to gain cooperation to help in anti terrorist operations by providing valuable intelligence or secured sites for Special Forces to carry out secret operations. Ironically, that was how US help the tribal Afghanis defeated the occupying Soviet army. If the price is right, certainly there will be takers to do the dirty job for America.

In the non-Muslim free world countries where terrorist cells exist, special and covert operations must neutralise known terrorists. As arresting and charging these terrorists by western judicial system can be fruitless, an alternative is to have secret squads to make them “disappear”. High profile and radical clerics too can be made to “disappear”. American can learn this skill from former “police states” of Soviet Union or East Germany. With enough of disappearing radicals, no one will dare to flout the rule of freedom of speech?


America politicians need to muster political will to create special law to fight terrorism. The law should exempt American and indemnify itself for any human right abuses. Protecting human right and freedom of speech should be completely ignored where fighting against terrorism is concerned. American must acknowledges that it cannot provide human rights protection to those committed to American destruction.

Congress and the Senate must muster the courage to unilaterally denouncing human rights for terrorists and stop berating the world on human rights. It needs to change its mindset that every human is entitled to justice. That is naively stupid. Do the perpetrators of 9/11 deserve human right protection? It is for American to justify such stand to NGOs that champions human rights. For America to make a U turn on this principle and ideal that has championed for so long and fundamentally so dear to America, is, I think almost an impossible call. But if a few more 9/11 hit American, then America will realise it have no choice.

In other non-Muslim free world countries where terrorist cells do exist, special and covert operations must neutralize known terrorists. As charging these terrorists by western judicial system will be fruitless, it is better to have secret squad to make them “disappear”. High profile and radical clerics too can be made to “disappear”. American can learn this skill from former “police states” of Soviet Union or East Germany. With enough of disappearing radicals, no one will dare to flout the rule of freedom of speech.

On its own home ground, radical clerics are preaching ‘jihad’ against American using the internet technology as well as sermons in parks and mosques. It is preaching hatred and alienating Muslims against non-Muslims. Unfortunately, these people are protected by American freedom of speech and religion. American law makers should repeal this law. All these activities should be banned and those that continue preaching hatred and ‘jihad’ against the west should be locked up. Perhaps American should follow Singapore ISA. By acting this way, it also encourages and motivates all its allies in Europe and the rest of the world to adopt the same stand. I can bet you, all this radical clerics will disappear in no time.

On the internet, web sites on ‘jihad’ should be censured or shut. Service providers are to ensure that or else their licenses will be revoked. Special intelligence officers should tapped phones of potential terrorists and monitor and scrutinize the internet. With modern technology, it should be able to trawl for sympathizers, radical converts as well as terrorist perpetrators. America needs to learn that many countries who adopt these anti-terrorism measures are far more effective in capturing terrorists.

The most effective means to eliminate terrorists is secrecy and covert actions. Terrorists operated under the same mode too. American too often is bogged down by negatives news media reports and excessively high numbers of commentaries from ‘experts’. When the war is debated on TV too often, public support wanes. Many operations are also hampered and restricted due to the need for transparency. It is time for American to hide behind the curtain of transparency just like the terrorists hiding behind the skirts of women and the sanctity of the mosques.

Terrorists need funding, weapons, and human capital. Coverts operations to limit and disrupt the flow of funds and weapons can choke off the terrorist life line. Following this trails also lead to valuable leads and intelligence.

From the political perspective, America must work hard to create a two states solution in the Israeli Palestinian conflict. It has to stand up to Israel and not allowed to be arm twisted by the powerful Jewish lobby in US. If that can be achieved, American can prove its impartiality and will win worldwide Muslim support. Then the moderate Muslims will not be perceived as American lackey when they isolate and denounce Muslim radicals like Al-Qaeda.

On foreign policies, America must adopt principle of mutual respect for others culture, tradition and religion. It must not assume the role of guardian of moral principles and enforce America’s ideals on others. America must acknowledge that nation take time to evolve, just like America itself. How one nation chooses to manage its citizen is that nation’s prerogatives. Whether it is stoning, caning or hanging, it is not America business. Whatever political process one nation chooses, or if the nations mistreat its own citizens, they too are not America business. That way, America can get even rogue government to cooperate on anti-terrorism.

So Obama, please bring home all your soldiers from Iraq and Afghanistan. It is doomed the same way as Vietnam as this war is unwinnable. All America need to do is to change tactics. Any tactics is better than conventional war.





----------------------------------------------------------------

AMERICA LOSING THE WAR ON TERROISM

Monday, January 4, 2010

AMERICA LOSING THE WAR ON TERROISM

More than 8 years has passed since 9/11. Al-Qaeda, a Muslim and anti-American group under the leadership of Osama Bin Laden claimed responsibility for 9/11. America under Bush retaliated, launched a global war against terrorism. He bombed Afghanistan where Osama is based and also went on to invade Iraq.

The terrorists are winning, not militarily, but psychologically. No longer can Americans enjoy peace and bliss in their own home. American has incurred more money to safeguard their security and waste so much time everywhere just to be safe. The cost of launching war in Afghanistan will further burden the already stretched budget.

Instead of lessening the risk of terrorism, American action has instead heightened the paranoia. Across the globe, security checks have become irritating, time consuming and costly routines. The queues at US airports are getting longer due to tougher scrutiny. Bush war on terrorism has been a complete failure. Today there are more terrorist cells that stretch from Asia, Europe, and now even Africa today. The war on terrorism has also breed individual self motivated terrorists. The terrorists have become more innovative as well as more emboldened. Obama has agreed to his general to send more troops to Afghanistan to fight terrorists.

The radical and anti American Muslims are also harnessing the internet technology to spread their propagandas and convert more sympathetic followers. Radical Muslim clerics in US and UK have free hand to actively preach anti-West sermons and ideologies openly in the mosques and parks because the western value of free speech condones it.

I honestly think the American has got this anti terroism strategy wrong from the very beginning. The means, modes and methods deployed in the war of terrorism are incompatible and not pragmatic when dealing with an invisible enemy that do not own a government or a country. Many soldiers from both America and NATO countries had lost their lives in vain. Historically, no power has beaten the Afghanis in their own country.

The American war against terrorism has alienated Muslim against non-Muslim. America intention is perceived as only protecting the interest of the Americans and this resulted in the loss of valuable support from friendly countries from the rest of the world. American unbinding support for the state of Israel and the war in Iraq had definitely dented its international creditability. Many Muslims in the Muslim world has become more anti-American. Because of mounting anti-American sentiment, it becomes easier to radicalise moderate Muslims and churned out more suicide bombers.

So America needs to rethink in military approach, relook at its foreign policies especially in its dealing with the Israeli Palestinian conflict as well as the way it handle its foreign policy with Asian countries that are growing economically.

But America biggest weakness and enemy is itself. Its self righteous moral on human rights, freedom speech and religion, democratic practices is its Achilles’ heel. Politicians in American constant lecturing the world on human rights and democracy may be good for their domestic popularity but may be viewed negatively as insincere and arrogant interference in countries abroad. The support it needs to combat terrorist from these governments it criticises is crucial but has been unwittingly compromised.

Commonsense will tell us terrorist attacking its targets do not abide and fight by international accepted rules. It respect no human rights, it do not differentiate between military or civilian. It even disregards its fellow Muslim. To fight terrorists, American politicians must not be naive to believe the sheer might and power of its military is capable of defeating any adversaries. It must not forget the history of the Vietnam War. A crocodile hunter will know the consequence if he walks into the river to hunt for crocodiles. The hunter will become the hunted! Sending a conventional army to take on the Taliban or terrorists in the mountains is no difference from the crocodile hunter hunting in the river.

Modern communications also bring war to our home. While instant news brought to our bedroom may be exciting and informing, any mistake committed by troops can be magnified and exploited by many anti-American quarters that can erode support for this war.

Will continue my second part another day.







----------------------------------------------------------------

STARTING A NEW DECADE 2010

Friday, January 1, 2010

STARTING A NEW DECADE 2010

Traditionally, at this time of the year, predictions and forecasts for the financial future springs to life. As the world is flushed with so much investible wealth, there is a compelling need to peek into the financial future. With thousands of MBAs in economics and finance, being paid handsomely, there need to put their intellect to good use. Even geomancers and ‘fengshui’ masters, unable to avoid the temptation, too, jump into the forecasting bandwagon. The truth is simple, in economic jargon, it is about wealth creation. In layman term, it is to make money.

“Crystal Balling” the future is an art. Because the economy is affected in so many ways and there are too many variables and unknowns. Even religion and politics can have severe impact on economy. Sometimes forecasting correctly is just plain luck. So what is my take on the economy? I too am entitled to my amateurish views on Singapore economy. Right or wrong, it cost me nothing.

Singapore is officially out of the recession and is expected to grow moderately with GDP around 3 to 5%. Unemployment rate will naturally drop as economy picks up. Most sectors are headed for modest recovery.

What is exciting for Singapore in 2010 is the opening of the two integrated resorts. It is a milestone in the remaking of Singapore. The host of conventions and meetings expected in the 2 IRs will certainly create many jobs in the service sectors. Universal Studios will pull in more tourists for Singapore, thus propping up the transport and communication sectors. With the opening of the casinos, many more associated economic activities will definitely kick-start the services sectors. The F1 race held annually in September will add more buzz and vibrancy to Singapore. The hotels and shopping malls too will benefits from the two IRs and F1 race
.
The property sectors will remain stable with upward bias. It will not rocket as the government is keeping a very vigilant lookout for overheating, and will not hesitate to cool it. Property bubble is very harmful and has negative effect to any economy. The mass market condominiums may even test the $1000psf threshold if the high- end segment continues its upward surge. With government allowing more foreigners to immigrate to Singapore; I can’t see the HBD sectors softening.

On investment, I think it is anybody guesses. Market will remain volatile as the financial crisis is not really over. Investors having been burnt badly in 2008/09, are now very focus and vigilant. Any slightest rumours or impending bad news will trigger them to scamper and take cover for safety. This is the reason for the expected volatility. As the market has move up strongly over 2009, many felt that it has already factored in the growth expected in 2010. I see the market to remain as a trading market. Market will trend up in anticipation of good news and dive down when expectations are not made.

I favoured the oil & gas related companies as well as the commodities sectors. Singapore will benefit from any increase in commodities prices. Next, some select properties companies with overseas exposure may benefit strongly from the growth in Asia. One unknown will be any companies associated with clean energy. Such companies may attract punters. One need to thread very nimbly in this market as indices are expected to be range bound. Timing for traders is paramount in this volatile environment.

As we are greatly dependent on trade, any slump in the major economies will impact us deeply. And on the contrary, a strong pick up will also augurs well for Singapore but I don’t expect that to happen. What is unsettling will be a natural disaster like big earth quakes in Japan or USA, or another 9/11 incidents or if Israel decide to unilaterally take military action against Iran, then the consequences will be far reaching. Politically, the larger countries like China, India, Brazil and Indonesia remain stable and any imploding from within are unlikely. There other worry is the strength of the US dollars. Unless the US government do something stupid, it will remain stable for the foreseeable future as there is no other reserve currency to replace it as alternative.

This in a new decade and the only constant in a globalised world is change. Knowledge is the common currency for all. Those that can anticipate and embrace change will stay ahead.

I look forward to the next decade 2010. I am optimistic that we will be better off than the last.





-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------