Boh Heng Journey

Sunday, 30 April 2017

Sunday, August 7, 2011

US GOLD STANDARD AAA DOWNGRADED

Was it a surprise, if you ask me, the answer is no. It’s only a matter of when.

Finally the credit agencies have the courage to downgrade the credit rating of the world’s biggest economy. S & P can no longer ignore the ballooning US debt crisis and it cannot be blind to the financial significance and the impact to the rest of the world. It cannot repeat the same mistake again. They were caught sleeping for not downgrading the housing loans prior to the sub-prime crisis in 1997. The subprime crisis causes the collapse of Lehman Brother and shattered so many Wall Street financial institutions such as AIG as well as many big banks around the world.

The significance of this downgrading signals the beginning of the decline of the American economy. It is an official acknowledge by an American rating agency that all is not well with the US economy. Had it be any other countries, the downgrade would have been as fast as it downgraded Greece and Iceland.

How the downgrade will impact the equity market may not be known in the short time. As the market open tomorrow in Tokyo and Seoul, then Singapore, Hong Kong and Shanghai, the market will speak. It could be a kneejerk reaction for sharp sell down but I suspect the market has already factor in the downgrade. But the long term outlook cannot be good and this may signal the beginning of the bear market.

The currency market is where the greatest impact will be. Bond prices and yield will be adversely affected. Borrowing cost in American will have to trend up eventually. The commodities market will track and mirror the global economy. Slowdown is definite; it is only a matter of how slow.

The US dollars have been the reserve currency of the world since WW2. No other currency as the size, depth and clout as alternative. It has been the currency of trade by default. At this point in time, there is just no replacement. It is for this reason that the US currency is able to withstand the pressure of falling rate resulting from it spirally debt to almost unsustainable level.

The impact of the falling in value is wide ranging. The major US creditor like China, Japan and many developing countries will be major loser. As the value of the currency fall, American will become poorer and can consume less. When it buys less, the rest of the world will be affected. And so this will be a vicious cycle and world economy will suffer.

It is not really a pleasant scenario we would like to experience.

Sunday, July 24, 2011

Testing

After more than 18 months absence from my blog, I need to test this blog still exist and work.

Haha, time to write again, hope the spirit is willing

Sunday, February 14, 2010

REUNION DINNER 2010

As usual, Chinese New Year reunion dinner was held in my elder brother’s house. The headcount remains the same as last year with an addition very soon. Looking back from my childhood days, it was always 6 until we got married. I never had a reunion dinner with my grandparents because they left long before me. So it was just 2 generations celebrating.

Tonight, our reunion dinner was celebrated by four generations. My mother is very fortunate and I often wonder whether she cherish this moment. I just wonder if I would live that long to taste this experience. I am less optimistic and think it just wishful thinking.

Looking back to my childhood, I remembered Chinese New Year was most exciting and memorable. The mood was joyous with lots of cookies to eat and as well as long school holiday. It’s also the time for Angpows collection that gave me the feeling of being richer.

For me Chinese New Year eve was special in my own way. It was the time when my ‘Kampong’ and childhood friends will meet for some drinks and card games. If I recall, this meeting started when I was in Sec 2 and our annual traditions continued to my Mid-30s. We started playing Black Jacks with stake from 20 cents and increases as we grew older. When we started work, we progress to Poker. Unfortunately, this annual tradition had to end as we had families and more important priorities.

My dad hated gambling and knew nothing of my indulgence. He would have been very upset if he knew of my escapades. The session normally ended after 2 or 3 am. When I reached home, father would be preparing for the morning prayers. Then I went to sleep until lunch time. The first and second days of Chinese New Year were routine.

The star of this year reunion dinner was my first grand-nephew. Being the first for his generation, he hogs the limelight and all attention was on him. His energy and cuteness certainly warm our heart. 30 years ago, the scenario was the same. It was his father, my first nephew which captured our attention. It brought out the essence of a family. He too was the first in his generation and I was really heartened to witness one generation matured from child to fatherhood.

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Monday, February 8, 2010

AVATAR, THE MORAL OF THE MOVIE

I am one who hardly goes to the movies. Yet I watch Avatar twice. I have read about this movie, produced and directed by James Cameroon. I was curious about the 3D format as well as the cutting edge technology that was employed to produce this epic. It’s about a humanoid race, Na’vi that inhabited the planet Pandora where the living live in harmony with nature. Human went there to mine a rare mineral through sheer power.

True to my expectation, the movie blew me off, kept me spellbound and I thoroughly enjoyed the cinematography and the animation. The setting was just spectacular and the story line is certainly thought provoking.

For the less initiated, viewing this movie purely as a fiction is thoroughly entertaining. To dwell a little into depth, a movie, like any story, comes with a moral behind it. In fact, the message portrayed is far more portent because of the visual impact. From the political and historical perspective, this movie certainly resonated and drew many parallels in the history of mankind.

The thought that came foremost to my mind was the colonization by European of African, Australia, Asia, North and South America.

The historical parallel was when the Spanish explorers, in search of gold and other precious metal, raided South America. It displaced, subjugated and marginalized the indigenous Indians. Many indigenous Indians were massacred or killed by disease brought in by the invaders. Today the entire continent speaks Spanish except Brazil and the Spanish descendants remained in rich and powerful position.

In North America, the English and the French almost wipe off the entire indigenous Red Indians population through scorched earth policy of slash and burn. There can be no reason to justify this cruel act other than outright greed to seize lands.

The stories were similar across Australia, Africa and Asia. The European, armed with superior fire power and were better organized, were able to steamroll the indigenous inhabitants into submission. It unscrupulously and recklessly plundered the earth resources for its insatiable appetite and forcefully seized and occupied indigenous land.

Another powerful message inflamed by this movie Avatar is the deteriorating world environment. Vast rainforests were destroyed to make way for development, as well as excessive and illegal logging for the tropical hardwood. The movie draws many parallel between the powerful and profit driven conglomerates devouring the earth commodities with very little regards for environmental damages.

In the movie, luckily there is Jake and Dr Grace to save the Na’vi and Pandora. As anticipated, the villains in the movie ended with death. But in the world that we live in, the legacy of colonization remained very evident. The Europeans remained embedded in many continents becoming even wealthier and stronger. The indigenous Red Indians, Amazon Indians, Maoris, Aborigines have been permanently dislocated, subjugated and marginalized.

By today standard, the acts of the early Europeans violate all human rights and human dignity. Ironically, today the loudest critics of human rights and the biggest proponents for saving the environment come from these countries.

Nevertheless, Avatar is a fiction movie that will trigger a technological revolution and set new standard in the film industry. Perhaps 3D will be the standard for big screen. Avatar has been nominated for 9 Oscars Awards.

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Monday, February 1, 2010

ANWAR, JUDICIARY, POLICE ALL ON TRIAL

The second series of Anwar sodomy trial is set to start tomorrow after a 10 year recess. In the first series, Anwar was convicted but after spending 6 years in prison for corruption charges, the High court overturned the sodomy charges. Legally, he is acquitted on this sexual demeanor. The first trial gripped many Malaysians and the world with salacious and juicy details of the once 2nd most powerful man, prime minister in waiting of Malaysia.

It also divided the nation and split the Malay ground. Many believe it was a conspiracy to end Anwar political career at any cost. Mahathir bore the brunt of the political fallout when it did poorly in the subsequent general election and may have hastened the early retirement of Mahathir. The political landscape was altered permanently especially in UMNO.

This time around it was a 22 year old aide that claimed he was sodomised by Anwar. There was of course a lot of skepticism on the ground. It is a crime in Malaysia for anal sex. If it was consensual sex between Azlan and Anwar, then both should be charged. As only Anwar is charged, it means than Azan was forcibly sodomised.

Many puzzling questions are asked. Is a 60 year old man so strong to be able to overcome a young 22 year old, stripping his pants, force him to bent and held him for the penetration? So who is not telling the truth?

And how did this young man secured permission to seek PM Najib counsel. How many ordinary citizens have a chance to meet the PM in private?

Well these questions will be best left to the prosecutor as well as the defense counsel to address in court.

Without doubt the trial will become a soap opera for the world to view and enjoy. Unfortunately the fallout from this trial will be very damaging for the country image. Within the country, the trial is set to crack the fissure deeper and further divide the nation at a time when energy should have been focus on the recovering economy.

The microscope will be on the Malaysian Judiciary. In fact, this trial is a trial on the integrity of the Malaysian judiciary system. If not handle properly, it will further erode the credibility of the judiciary system. The police too are on trial. Any wrong or silly prosecution will further affirm the prejudicial nature and incompetence of the attorney general and the police force.

Most citizens of Malaysia have anticipated the final judgement basing on the experience of the first trial. The verdict is a foregone conclusion. The legal system allows appeal from any parties on the outcome of the verdict. This will drag the case for years. Whatever the court judgement, the real judge for this trial is the Malaysian public as well as all the international communities. Public perception and opinion will be crucial to the next general election in Malaysia as either Anwar or UMNO will be buried in history.

Whichever way the judgement goes, there will be no winner. The country, the politicians and the citizens will have to bear the consequences.

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Saturday, January 23, 2010

MALAYSIA MISFORTUNE, BLAME MAHATHIR

Mahathir recent blogs on the internet as well as his tirades against the west continue unabated, showing his bitterness and frustration of what is happening in his Malaysia. For a man of his age, he is surely alert and seems to crave the attention he lost since leaving the corridors of powers. Many, including me have thought that after helping to destroy and remove Abdullah Badawi, the man will gracefully retreat to his moral high ground to enjoy the serenity in his twilight years. But this is not to be. Perhaps politician just cannot fade away quietly.

Instead, he lost no time rejoining UMNO and becoming more vocal. As most of the main Medias shun him, it did not stop him from ranting and spewing venomous rhetoric in his blogs and over interviews. On the contrary, he has on many occasions gone ballistic and vitriolic on the blog. He used the blog shrewdly to manipulate public sentiment as well as to elevate his popularity and justify his relevance. Of course his chorus of gullible and diehard fans keep singing his praises and echo his idiosyncrasies. His trademark sarcasms have been generously used to belittle his foes as well as those who overshadowed him like LKY.

While the country is marred by controversies one after another, the race and religious bickering are spiraling out of control; he had chosen to remain oblivious to the country needs for national unity and racial harmony. In such turbulent time, any noble statesman would have step out spontaneously, using their status and credibility to heal and unite the nation. On the ‘Allah’ issue, he seems to sit on the fence. It is obvious he is playing safe as he did not wish to offend his own UMNO and Malay conservatives.

Mahathir seems to have agendas of his own. But one recent blogs he tries to ignite the water agreement with Singapore as well as the calling LKY a Little Emperor of Modern Middle Kingdom. It failed to excite the public. Now he writes that sands being smuggled to Singapore and blame some government officials. Does he have an ulterior motive to stir up some emotions, so that this emotion can be exploited? Apparently, the blog was timely as we noticed the subsequent arrest of high government officials which belong to the opposition party. Is he planning to discredit PKR or Singapore bashing to divert attention in time of trouble. Or is he just demonstrating his prowess and nationalistic credentials?

His latest claim that the 9/11 terrorist attack was staged by the US government to give it justification to attack Iraq was astounding. It is even more bizarre for him to argue that if USA can produce “Avatar”, the 9/11 conspiracy is possible. But why an educated doctor would want to make such stupendous claim? Surely he must have a motive. Is he picking on the Jews to divert attentions? Is he seeing something we don’t? Maybe he needs to spew something so idiosyncratic to catch the world attention. Of course he can hoodwink some of his targeted audience, but this time round, many would just dismiss this tirade. His country folks are no more gullible or illiterate.

So far, Mahathir has squarely blamed outsiders and opposition parties for Malaysia woes. Mahathir scathing attack on Badawi has tone down a few notches but still occasionally insinuate him. His trademark mode is to blame everybody except himself. As the country get deeper into economic and social malaise, blaming other may not be sufficient to save the day. The present government will have no choice but to assign some blame to the predecessors including Mahathir.

Many quarters are speculating that Mahathir will eventually be blamed for the rampant corruption in government, as well as the big companies controlled by UMNO members and associates. The unabashed cronyism and the shameless handout mentality among the Malay masses are also attributed to the 22 years of” Mahathirism”. This was done in the name of affirmation action to assist the economically weak Malays. Tengku Razaleigh has pointedly commented that the oil money was a curse to Malaysia and was wastefully squandered by the government or not spend diligently. Of course we know who headed Petronas and the Government. Former WSJ journalist wrote in his biography of Mahathir that this man squandered away 100 billion ringgits. For sure, more skeletons will fall out of the closets when the social and economic situations deteriorate further in Malaysia.

Mahathir has grand vision to build a stable of Malays billionaires to take on the tycoons like Lim Goh Tong, Robert Kwok, Kwek Leng Chan and many non-Malays entrepreneurs. So through UMNO and his friend Daim, he supported and nurtured Halim Saad of PLUS, of N/S Highway, Tajuddin of MAS and a few Malays. It looked promising at first, but when the Asian Financial crisis hit, all this Mahathir propped millionaires crumbled like a house of cards. In the end, he blamed Soros for his failure and castigated his deputy Anwar for wanting to accept IMF support. During Mahathir reign, Bank Negara lost billion or ringgit in money speculation. Billions were also spend to bail up failed Bumiputras banks.

Another of Mahathir endeavor was to uplift the status of Malays. His conviction to social engineering of a new breed o Malays that is equal, if not better than the Chinese was simplistic and naïve at best. With quota and privilege for Malays to be admitted to university with grade below mediocre, it basically kill the spirit to compete and strive. At such young age, if this spirit is not inculcated, it is no surprise such competitive spirit will be absent when one grows up and faces the world. In the business world, affirmative action also guarantees many businesses for Malays. Thus a crutch mentality is created from cradle to grave. Companies are required to employ 30% Bumiputras. Many redundant vacancies are created in the civil services just to hire Malays. These people will never understand the meaning of productivity.

No one doubts the difficulties of governing a multi racial and multi religious country. Mahathir autocratic style did allow him to govern Malaysia effectively. But his use of divide and rule tactics to manage the Chinese and Indian parties further polarizes the nations. Racial issues are further aggravated. He had the chance to transform Malaysia into a truly multi racial harmonious country but he was prejudice against non-Malays. Playing the race card is his winning strokes for many years. Putting fears into the Malays and constantly bashing the west was very endearing to the Malays. He never endorsed the concept of Malaysian identity. 22 years is long enough to do this bit of nation building. Today Malaysia’s woes could have been avoided if Mahathir had done the right thing.

On education, he championed the use of Bahasa Malay. Today, it is just difficult to overturn education policies without alienating the Malays. This he has regretted as many Malaysians are not very marketable due to the language handicap. The education quota system also drove away substantial number of non-Malays overseas. Many of the best and bright talented young non-Malays are lured away with lucrative scholarship and never return. This brain drain has far reaching economic impact on Malaysian economy in the future. Surely a man of Mahathir caliber must recognizes the folly of this education policy but he does not have the political courage to overturn his own creation without upsetting his Malay constituency.

Mahathir sacking of the once highly respected and independent high court judges death a blow to the judiciary system. Today the judges’ appointments are based on alignment to the right political parties. Many court decisions are questionable and the public has lost faith in the judiciary system.

In some way, Mahathir must be given credit to his ability to rally Malaysia of all walks of life. He was able to make Malaysia feel proud to be a Malaysian. His smartly use of “Malaysia Boleh” and Vision 2020 were prime examples. He builds the tallest building; sent Malay into space, sail around the world and climb Mt. Everest. He built airport, seaport and improve the country infrastructures. These are some to the highlights. Unfortunately, the slogan “Malaysia Boleh” has now become the butt of the jokes and describes anything outrageous and scandalous.

In my opinion, Mahathir greatest failure was his inability to groom and nurture the next generation of leaders during his 22 years in office. It is really hard to explain; he sacked 3 deputy Prime Ministers and went on to destroyed the fourth that he anointed as his successor. Any wise leaders must groom someone to takeover. Look at China; it is now grooming the 4th generation leaders. Nelson Mandela has a team of leaders to take over him when he stood down. Some speculated that Mahathir inherent fear of being ousted prevented him from nurturing leaders to take over his mantle. If this is true, then this must exemplify his deep insecurity and suspicion of others.

It is highly possible, BN may lose the next election and that will be Mahathir biggest nightmare. So far, no one has yet to dig into Mahathir 22 year’s legacy. His policies and many failings will eventually surface and the public will understand that the problem Malaysia faces today is the outcome of Mahathir’s legacy. If PKR forms the next government, then Mahathir failures will be magnified and his legacy will be diminished. I would not hesitate to guess that Mahathir will get the same blame medicine he has prescribed to so many.

Being a consummated politician, Mahathir has honed the skill of blaming others and is a master in the art of deception and diversion. I notice he has been intentionally courting controversies and constantly seeking attention. All these are done with purpose and there must be a motive. Perhaps he is expecting the worst and realize the blame game may ended up with him being the ultimate victim.

For 22 long years, he has tirelessly built and ran a country, it is only natural for him to worry how history will judge him, as he clearly knows that history is written by winner. What if the winner is Anwar Ibrahim? And he has too many detractors and enemies. That’s why his engine is firing on all cylinders, flooding Malaysians with all kind of theatrics to keep them busy. Very shrewdly, he is dictating the subjects, denying his adversaries any chance to scrutinize him. For him to have the upper hand, he must continue to speak out before the wind change tack.

All that I wrote are my wild imagination.

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Monday, January 18, 2010

HAITI, WHO CAN STOP NATURAL DISASTERS

The last few days, I was engrossed watching live broadcast of the Haiti earthquake. I find this tragedy very sad and I am much disturbed. The images are grim, depressing, heart wrecking but it also thought provoking. One of the most dramatic and grueling images was 11 year old girl whose leg was crushed under steel concrete grimacing in pain and calling out “papa, papa.....” she was eventually freed after 2 days to the relief of so many watching her fate. But she died in hospital. My heart really went out to her.

Thanks to modern communications, we see images of crushed and mangled building, piles of bodies strewn across the streets, the despondent looks of the traumatized survivors looking for their loved ones. And frantically digging in vain with bare hands to save a life and so many scenes that break our hearts. We see all these destructions in the comfort of our living room. An all out global rescue and humanitarian effort is underway, but that is just the beginning of the misery of Haitians.

I have always been curious and disturbed, trying to fathom and understand the causes and reasons for all these natural disasters. The 2004 Tsunami and the 2008 Sichuan earthquake were the recent disasters. And year in year out, the flood, Typhoons, Hurricanes and volcano eruptions visit mankind without fail. Helplessly, mankind take the bashings, unable to stop all these disasters despite constant appeal for divine intervention. Yes, not even all the Gods out there can stop these disasters.

Why can’t the Christian God stop the typhoon to protect all the Catholics in Philippines?

Why can’t the Islam Allah stop the monsoon drowning all the Muslim Bangladeshis?

Why can’t the Hindus Deities stop the drought as well the flood?

Why can’t the Buddha show mercy to all the disasters and just stop it?

Isn’t what we learn and believe that all Gods are merciful, loving and compassionate? All religions condemn killing of children and innocent lives. How do we justify innocent and young babies and children just perished in all these disaster? We ostracized women for abortions as murders in the name of God or Gods. Yet why pregnant women must dies in natural disasters?

Are all the Gods punishing us for our sins? Are all these retributions for the evil deeds committed? Or are all these disasters the work of the Devil or Satan? Or is it the law of nature to cull the population in those areas that are heavily populated? No, we are not supposed to question as God has the power to create, it too has the prerogative to destroy.

Do we have answers or just pretend to have answers, or just manufacture our own answer to justify our faith? And when we cannot find an answer, do we conveniently explained away that all the Gods have reasons for these to happen and it is beyond our understanding? Are we suppose to reassure our self that those who died will proceed to heaven? Or those that perished will be reincarnated and the next live we see a better ‘karma’ than this one? Or is it we will be reduced to dust as Atheist believed?

And for those of you, who profess that you understand and sympathize the pain and sorrow of the victims, please don’t fool yourself. You never will. All I can say is that the grieving process will be very long, some recovers, many never. One of the good of religions is that any faith can help to mitigate the pains and console the mind and assist in the recovery. This is because faith provides hope. Yes, hope even for this most impoverish nation in the western hemisphere.

As the reality of the disaster sinks in, the hunger pangs of the victims will also unleashed the ugly side of human being. Looting and fighting and scavenging for food and shelters will feature in the next episode of the news. At the same time we will also hear of bravery, courage and humility of fellow men. But no amount of consolation and praying will bring back the lives of those who perished. But there are bound to have a few lucky one buried alive to be rescue miraculously.

I have no answers but I know this is certain, there will be many more disasters, some even worst. Mankind has no means to stop natural disaster, neither do any of the Gods the world knows. At best mankind can do is to be prepared to face natural disaster and minimize the loss of life and properties.

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